What works once, maybe doesn't work a second time
A long time ago, @ph1102 and myself teamed up to purchase one of the last batches of Untamed Splinterlands packs. By teaming up, we managed to secure a nice discount and we bought the packs at a very cheap price. We split the purchase price and also the packs. We both didn't have the same strategy thereafter.
While I couldn't manage to keep most of the packs unopened, @ph1102 kept most of his packs. After a couple of months, the value of these packs skyrocketed. I remember selling a single pack for close to 90 Hive which was close to 20 times the purchase value of the packs. We made a very nice profit with this move.
One collection later, @ph1102 tried to repeat the move and he bought Splinterlands Chaos packs at a very good price. Unfortunately, this time it's didn't work the same way. Since the purchase, the pack and card value has decreased and it resulted in a big loss.
What changed?
A lot of things changed between the two series. In addition to the traditional crypto moves, the number of packs sold in Chaos was much higher than the one in Untamed. Also there were some very powerful untamed cards that kept their value very well. This wasn't the same for chaos cards.
In conclusion, I believe that in crypto things are very volatile and the situations change very quickly. If you make a good deal one day, you should really ponder the fact whether you can reproduce it or not. Sometimes, it will be a one time thing and other times it might be repeated.
The thing is, we can't know in advance. In my opinion it's always a 50% chance that things turn out the way we hope. On the other hand, if we never take any risk, we can't expect exceptional rewards.
What we tried with Untamed packs, gave an exceptional reward. We took a risk and it was worth it. When we look at the value of chaos packs now, we would say that it was a loss. However, we don't know how the value of these packs will evolve in the future... Maybe their value will increase...
Finding a good risk balance
Without taking risks, we won't make big losses but we won't get exceptional gains either. It's important that we find a good way to deal with these risks and then avoid taking decisions based on emotions. @ph1102 has still most of his chaos packs and who knows how much worth they will be in the future? Maybe one day, I will come back to this post and tell you how good a decision it was that he kept his packs... Or maybe not :-)
Let's connect ! You can find me on these platforms:
P.S: @ph1102 and @mypathtofire inspired me for this article and therefore each gets 5% beneficiary rewards. Thanks guys ;-)
Hehehehe... Thanks for the mention... Even when I served as a good example of a bad choice... 😂 But...
There is still hope for the Chaos Legion packs (and cards in general)... We can't forget that with new edition cards, all those powerful Untamed Summoners (and normal cards) will go to the Wild Ranked, and disappear from the Modern battles!
If Rebellion edition cards aren't much better than CL (or even Untamed), there is a chance for CL cards to do well and to gain on value... Along with card value, packs could be more valuable... Of course, there are many packs and cards out there, but you never know what could happen in the next bull market...
Cheers!
I don't want to ruin your hopes hehe, but from what they talked about double summoners and the new abilities it is very likely that Revellion will be a fairly strong expansion, of course when it comes out untamed some Chaos cards will be revalued, but I think the only thing that saves us from a real loss is a general bull market.
And believe me, some of us would have preferred to buy Chaos because at least they have utility and unlike me, I bought it in TD and we still don't even know the release date of the game :(
Heheheh... No worries at all... I am aware of possible risks and there is no way back... 😃 Every new EDITION card has to be better as that's the only way you can sell them... The thing with CL was that they were mostly weaker than Untamed, and they printed a lot of them...
Also, they had to create FOMO for Rebellion to sell as many as possible, which is also understandable... We will see what will happen with the game in general... It is growing on many different sides, which means that a lot of value has to be added, and a lot of new players...
I hope that they will bring the TD game out asap. I had a bad feeling about it and didn't invest at all. Hope you will soon get some value for your purchase...
Everything seems to indicate that for this year it is not:(, hehe, you have a good sixth sense
If we have DEC at peg, there will be a bottom price of the packs and cards related to the burn value of the cards. I therefore don't think that prices will drop much more. And as you said, it's possible that the cards get valued more thanks to the change of untamed out of modern.
20 times from the original value? That's really awesome profit you earn.
It definitely is :-)
I think what happened with the CL expansion will cause a lot of people to take a step back this time round, myself included. I will likely just sit back and go for individual cards.
In hindsight, the explosive growth of SL was pretty negative for the game. Things grew too much, too fast and the company behind it, didn't really know how to follow along...
You are right. Crypto is very volatile and dynamic but posses a great potentials to change many lives financially.
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One has to be open to take some risks to harvest big rewards but it doesn't always turn out the way we expect...
Risk management should be something that will be practiced by many cryptocurrency holders
That's why it is good to make proper research on the coins that you feel have a bright future just like Hive before you invest
It's important to do your due diligence before investing.
In as much as success is tied to risk taken, success is also attached to risk management. Proper risk management I mean
It's a difficult path between risk and avoiding risk and in the end we have to find this way for ourselves.
It's definitely hard to strike a balance. I had hope for Chaos Legion but they overprinted. As for untamed, I should have sold more packs earlier but the price keeps going down. To an extent, I think modern removing untamed soon has tampered people's expectations for untamed. I wish I sold more of the packs when the prices of untamed were higher.
Untamed packs went to the moon and back. There again, selling at the peak could be the best solution but it's always easier to see things in hindsight :-)
Amazing how you guys have such investor skills. I have yet to learn how to make the most of my Splinterlands account. Perhaps I should liquidate it since I hardly ever play at all anyway. 🤣 I guess timing really is key. I should learn when to HODL and when to let go. 😂 thank you for sharing your experience. I'm learning lots from reading how others do it. Do enjoy your weekend!
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I think that timing matters a lot in all things related to investments but what matters even more is to try to guess how the others will behave. It often pays when we do exactly the contrary of what everybody else is doing. Especially in times of FOMO, I try to do the contrary :-)
I don't FOMO either, the downside is I miss out on some good opportunities as I tend to take too long sometimes to make decisions. 🤣 delays can be good at other times. 😆 I'm saving up for another ctpsb gold nft.. perhaps some time November. I have that on my plan list. 🤓 happy Sunday! ✨
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Great to hear you telling it like it is. Not all things go to the moon.
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Definitely not. However, if we don't try nothing will go there :-)
Wow oh dear! Yeah based on the recent packs including Riftwatchers, the values are much cheaper now. Maybe that's why some people are "waiting to buy" Rebellion later instead.
!LUV
I'm definitely not jumping into Rebellion without knowing more about the cards. I will probably upgrade some summoners and some cards that I find useful but I believe it will be easier to do it over the card market than through buying packs.
What a volatile and dynamic crypto world.
There is definitely a big deal of volatility :-)
Yes
We keep saying Land will do this and that. If Land will do only 50% of what is supposed to do, CL packs will be in high demand too...
I've been waiting for land a very very long time and I don't want to count too much on it :-)
It is difficult to predict the future but every investment whether good or bad teaches something and enhances experience.
The important thing in my opinion is to invest what can be lost lightly, and above all, it is important to project in the worst case so that one never finds oneself hurt ;)
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I tend to have more than 90% of my funds in what I consider safe funnels like HP or HBD. The rest I use for more risky investments. I think that the key is to always consider a 100% loss and how this would affect us.
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It's like that every person has his own destiny and it doesn't happen every time that things give a person a profit. Because of this lesson, a person will be able to get a lot of profit in the future.
Investing is like everything else. We learn with experience. The more we do it, the better we get.
Yeah I totally agree with you
I sometimes wonder if I have some old coin, token or crypto asset I forgot about that I discover is worth millions. Only in my dreams. Or if I lost my keys... nightmare!
If you have no coins, there is no place for such a scenario... Keeping the keys safe is however pretty important ;-)
Good for you to have made profits of over 20 times your wise investment. In as much as we can not foresee the future. Let's keep making wise decision, you win something, you lose something. I hope you come back later with some good news about @ph1102 decision. Thanks for sharing.
It's not possible to see what is ahead of us but we can try to take some risks. Sometimes they pay off, sometimes not.
That's life and that's how it is. No pain no gain
True, decisions made based on emotions doesn't end too well sometimes.
And whenever we take a risk, we should be ready for it's outcome.
Sometimes it comes out sweet and juicy, while sometimes we taste the bitter part.
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Emotions are a very bad counsellor when it comes to investments. Listing to our emotions will always bear negative effects when it comes to decide upon our investments.
That's true.
Predicting crypto prices is definitely one of the more challenging endeavors! I've done crypto trading on and off for years, and I have to say that it's not my favorite thing to do, and exactly because of its ridiculous unpredictability. 😁 🙏 💚 ✨ 🤙
When you look at shares from companies, it's quite clear which number matter and how to evaluate them. It's a different story for crypto... Even if we do our due diligence, we are never sure how things will evolve.
You got that right! Crypto is a whole other wild can of worms! Knowing what I know now, I'd say that most crypto projects are not worth one's time. There is only a handful that I actually support, Hive of course being one of them. 😁 🙏 💚 ✨ 🤙
Unfortunately you are pretty right there. Most project's only aim is to enrich the people who create them...
Exactly, which is why I focus only on the community-based, open-source, decentralized, sovereignty-driven and aligned blockchains! 😁 🙏 💚 ✨ 🤙
Risks is all part of winning unless we take one or two risks we will never learn to be successful in life.
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Thanks a lot for your curation efforts!
Cryptocurrency is indeed a volatile market. Thanks for the explanation.
Thanks for stopping by.
You are welcome.
Wow, too bad the second attempt didn't pay off for him. That's how it is in the world of crypto. It is volatile. You either benefit massive or lose scandalously.
Yes there seems to be no middle way ;-)
Exactly.
Great post! I think you've done a great job of explaining the risks and rewards of investing in crypto, and the importance of finding a good risk balance.
I agree that it's important to avoid making decisions based on emotions. When you're feeling excited or greedy, it's easy to make rash decisions that you'll later regret. It's better to take a step back and think things through carefully before making any investment decisions.
I've learned the hard way that all emotions are bad counsellors when it come to investing. Excitement and greed is bad but fear and panic is even worse :-). Thanks for stopping by!
You definitely have to take those risks and take them with maturity, in fact in this world of cryptocurrencies it may not necessarily be losses, it could suddenly become a great investment hehehe. In fact investing between siblings strengthens bonds, I know you won't make hasty decisions in the future, it's all error and try again. Happy day bro! ✌️
That is very true. What one day looks a loss might look totally different another day :-)