BTC and other cryptos are leaving the price of HIVE behind
I joined HIVE nearly two years ago to the day. Ever since, I've watched the price of HIVE quite fanatically, but have also observed the price of BTC in comparison as well.
During 2022, I'd say they were fairly well matched, with BTC leading obviously. If BTC dropped, HIVE dropped with it. If BTC went up, so did HIVE.
[Price of BTC (top) and Hive (bottom) over 2022. Source: Screen shot from Coinmarketcap on 5th Dec 2023]
The price graphs over 2022 show that relationship relatively well. They are not exact, but they aint that fair out in terms of shape.
However, roll on 2023, and its quite a different story.
[Price of BTC over 2022 and 2023. Source: Screen shot from Coinmarketcap on 5th Dec 2023]
As we are all aware, BTC has done pretty well since the start of 2023. Looking at the 2 year price chart above, it bottomed out right at the end of 2022 and has then done fairly well since, with a lovely sharp climb quite recently.
[Price of HIVE over 2022 and 2023. Source: Screen shot from Coinmarketcap on 5th Dec 2023]
Whereas for HIVE, 2023 has been quite different. It also hit the lows at the end of 2022 (~$0.30), and apart from a short rise to around the $0.50 mark in the first quarter of the year, it hasnt really moved much out of the $0.30s.
So is HIVE being left behind. I've heard many people on the blockchain talking about wonderful things for HIVE in 2024 and the coming years when the bull market kicks in. I've even heard people talking about prices up to $10 (really ?).
But is it just HIVE thats being left behind ? Is BTC out on its own now that the big boy investors have taken notice ?
[Price of BTC, HIVE, LTC and ETH over 2022 and 2023. Source: Screen shot from Coinmarketcap on 5th Dec 2023]
Well I thought I'd better check in on a few other coins. I picked LTC because I use it for transferring value around, and then ETH because I wondered if it might have been following BTC more closely. And its a fairly mixed picture - or is it ?
[Rough prices of the 4 noted cryptos, every 6 months over the last 2 years - Source: Coinmarketcap on 5th Dec 2023]
In the top table in the pic above I took the price of the 4 noted cryptos every 6 months over the last 2 years - inc today. In the bottom table I then tried to normalise those prices, by setting the price on the 1st of Jan 2022 to 100% for all cryptos, and then showing the price now as a percentage of the price back on the 1st of Jan 2022. Please note that the prices in the top table might be a little out on any given day as I was struggling to get the exact price points on the dates noted (but its close enough).
The normalised percentages give a really interesting picture, especially when plotted together (graph above):
- You can see the clear BTC curve (blue) - hitting its dip at the end of 2022 and then going back up through 2023,
- All of them follow a very similar pattern through the first half of 2022,
- From the start of 2023, ETH and LTC also increase, although not nearly as well as BTC, although HIVE languishes and hardly moves at all.
From a HIVE perspective the question I'm now asking is whether a bull market will make much of a difference. Is HIVE too niche and overlooked. Will it get left behind. Adoption is clearly a big question mark, again which is talked about all the time.
To be honest, I'd absolutely love to be completely wrong, and to be fair, I'm not looking at a lot of data here, but clearly HIVE is not tracking that closely to BTC anymore, compared to 2022, and I'd say less so compared to ETH. So are we going to see a massive rise back above $1 and beyond any time soon ? I'm struggling to see it, unless something else happens - and I guess that would have to be adoption.
So I'm now quite interested to see what happens during the first quarter of 2024, and heres hoping its just a lag and that the bull does kick in. However, if that does not happen, then we might all have to think about what we need to do differently.
Hmm, that's interesting. It's true in the past that basically btc was the wave that raised all boats. OTOH, that was kind of problematic because it was mostly due to people getting on board hype trains and indiscriminately throwing money at any coin, including scams.
Hive I think has a lot going for it, function wise; we're truly decentralized compared to many other chains, we're accessible to not-rich people, we have things built on our chain so it's more than just basically the stock market, we're not a huge waste of electricity like POW coins, etc.
So breaking away might not be a bad thing, as long as you say, adoption actually happens. We have all the potential, but not so many of the "investor bros" dumping money in - but that might be good long term as it somewhat insulates us from pump and dumps, people who don't want to create and sustain anything but only milk it while they can, yanno? How many Bitcoin maximalists who profited in 2017 are still around, I wonder?
I do think it is very interesting. As you say the potential is there, but adoption is not really happening -I guess we have to see what happens !
I've been thinking about this a lot recently. My own view (and of course I could be completely wrong) is that I'd love to see Hive as an ecosystem achieve far wider adoption.
But the price of the HIVE token itself is something I'd prefer to see climb slowly but steadily.
The absolute last thing we need is for large scale investors to pop in, try to asset-strip as much value as possible and then sell out again. Although it is slower and less exciting, I want my growth to come from author, curation, HBD and other rewards, not from hoping the price goes up so I can sell at a profit.
I'm starting to think that what we need to do is stop talking about Hive as a crypto thing at all. It scares off the people who believe the anti-crypto propaganda of banks and government treasury departments. Instead, we should be talking about all the useful, fun and exciting applications people can find in the ecosystem.
I'd like to think HIVE is currently safe from large scale investors and asset stripping. They'd struggle to asset strip because of the web3 aspect, although they could pull value out of HBD and HIVE.
I agree - the apps are the selling point. I also think that what puts a lot of people off is that they see it as a blogging place only - there are lots of people who have absolutely no interest in that.
I think it will catch up eventually. Maybe not $20, but definitely above $1.
Heres hoping for >$1 - that would be great, but at this rate, I'm not seeing the signs of it happening anytime soon.
No, we still have a ways to go yet.
I do not expect Hive rising to the moon thing, getting back to 0,8$ is already great
Yep - I agree.
I think BTC is doing its own thing with the ETF, Institutional Money, Upcoming Scarcity, Halving etc... maybe once the dominance reduces, some other cryptos might shine. Currently only the shiney new things and BTC seem to be doing really well with speculations hype.
That being said, in the last 12 months, there hasnt been too much new things being built on Hive, apart from Ecency with an App and LF changing to Threads, only the usual L2 pump and dumps are happening.
Yep - it does look like BTC is doing its own thing, and I can understand that what with all the other crypto scares (LUNA, etc).
In terms of apps, there has also been a lot of new development on the game front - so that could be a potential angle to bring in more adopters.
Hive never followed the BTC and altcoin cycle as such. Actually whenever BTC pump, Hive loses more value.
Not exactly, Look on the DHF proposal that are getting funded in Hive, Is anyone of them is for "enhancing" the layer 1 of Hive? or adding something new on Hive core functionality?
You will get the answer there.