Euro 2024 - How Accurate Are AI Predictions? [Part 9 - Which AI Is The Winner?]
Spain has won Euro 2024 which wasn't that much of a surprise because they were strong favourites coming into this tournament. But the question is, which AI is the winner for the predictions?
So I wrote a post earlier this week (here) about using AI to predict Euro 2024 matches, and I discussed whether the predictions were accurate or not.
And it wasn't just me who found this interesting - there were a few comments who thought this was something that they wanted to follow. So I thought, why not let me continue with this?
So here's what I would do:
- To spare you guys all the AI generated analysis, I have removed their analysis and focused purely on the scorelines
- As usual, I would ask ChatGPT and Meta AI on the day of the matches itself so that they can provide their prediction based on the latest(?) information they have
- Of course, we should have a competition as to which AI is better in predicting the outcome of the matches. So I have come up with a scoring system: 1 point for guessing the correct team (or draw), 3 points for guessing the exact scoreline!
- Update: From knockout round onwards, given the complexity of extra time and penalty shootouts, both AIs will just be required to pick the winner. 2 points to be awarded for the correct guess!
Have put in some effort to organise all the data within the table below. (The first 4 matches were NA because I started this experiment late.)
| Match | ChatGPT | Meta AI | Actual Score | Keeping Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany vs Scotland | NA | NA | 5-1 | |
| Hungary vs Switzerland | NA | NA | 1-3 | |
| Spain vs Croatia | NA | NA | 3-0 | |
| Italy vs Albania | NA | NA | 2-1 | |
| Poland vs Netherlands | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1-2 | ChatGPT +3 Meta AI +3 |
| Slovenia vs Denmark | 0-2 | 0-2 | 1-1 | X |
| Serbia vs England | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-1 | ChatGPT +1 Meta AI +1 |
| Romania vs Ukraine | 1-1 | 1-2 | 3-0 | X |
| Belgium vs Slovakia | 2-0 | 3-0 | 0-1 | X |
| Austria vs France | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-1 | ChatGPT +1 Meta AI +1 |
| Turkey vs Georgia | 2-1 | 2-1 | 3-1 | ChatGPT +1 Meta AI +1 |
| Portugal vs Czech Republic | 3-1 | 2-0 | 2-1 | ChatGPT +1 Meta AI +1 |
| Croatia vs Albania | 2-1 | 2-1 | 2-2 | X |
| Germany vs Hungary | 3-1 | 3-0 | 2-0 | ChatGPT +1 Meta AI +1 |
| Scotland vs Switzerland | 1-2 | 0-2 | 1-1 | X |
| Slovenia vs Serbia | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1-1 | X |
| Denmark vs England | 1-3 | 1-2 | 1-1 | X |
| Spain vs Italy | 2-2 | 1-1 | 1-0 | X |
| Slovakia vs Ukraine | 1-2 | 2-1 | 1-2 | ChatGPT +3 |
| Poland vs Austria | 1-1 | 2-0 | 1-3 | X |
| Netherlands vs France | 1-3 | 2-1 | 0-0 | X |
| Georgia vs Czech Republic | 1-2 | 1-1 | 1-1 | Meta AI +3 |
| Turkey vs Portugal | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-3 | ChatGPT +1 Meta AI +1 |
| Belgium vs Romania | 2-0 | 2-0 | 2-0 | ChatGPT +3 Meta AI +3 |
| Switzerland vs Germany | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1-1 | X |
| Scotland vs Hungary | 2-1 | 2-1 | 0-1 | X |
| Albania vs Spain | 0-3 | 0-3 | 0-1 | ChatGPT +1 Meta AI +1 |
| Croatia vs Italy | 1-2 | 1-1 | 1-1 | Meta AI +3 |
| France vs Poland | 3-1 | 2-1 | 1-1 | X |
| Netherlands vs Austria | 2-0 | 2-0 | 2-3 | X |
| Denmark vs Serbia | 2-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Meta AI +1 |
| England vs Slovenia | 4-0 | 3-0 | 0-0 | X |
| Slovakia vs Romania | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1-1 | ChatGPT +3 Meta AI +3 |
| Ukraine vs Belgium | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | X |
| Georgia vs Portugal | 0-3 | 0-2 | 2-0 | X |
| Czech Republic vs Turkey | 2-1 | 2-1 | 1-2 | X |
| Knockout | ||||
| Switzerland vs Italy | Italy | Italy | Switzerland | X |
| Germany vs Denmark | Germany | Denmark | Germany | ChatGPT +2 |
| England vs Slovakia | England | Slovakia | England | ChatGPT +2 |
| Spain vs Georgia | Spain | Georgia | Spain | ChatGPT +2 |
| France vs Belgium | France | Belgium | France | ChatGPT +2 |
| Portugal vs Slovenia | Portugal | Slovenia | Portugal | ChatGPT +2 |
| Romania vs Netherlands | Netherlands | Netherlands | Netherlands | ChatGPT +2 Meta AI +2 |
| Austria vs Turkey | Austria | Turkey | Turkey | Meta AI +2 |
| Quarter Finals | ||||
| Spain vs Germany | Spain | Spain | Spain | ChatGPT +2 Meta AI +2 |
| Portugal vs France | France | France | France | ChatGPT +2 Meta AI +2 |
| England vs Switzerland | England | England | England | ChatGPT +2 Meta AI +2 |
| Netherlands vs Turkey | Netherlands | Netherlands | Netherlands | ChatGPT +2 Meta AI +2 |
| Semi Finals | ||||
| Spain vs France | France | Spain | Spain | Meta AI +2 |
| Netherlands vs England | England | England | England | ChatGPT +2 Meta AI +2 |
| Finals | ||||
| Spain vs England | England | Spain | Spain | Meta AI +2 |
Current Score: ChatGPT 41 (-) Meta AI 41 (+2)
And for the final score, both ChatGPT and Meta AI are tied 41 points each! Meta AI was leading at the group stage, before ChatGPT overtook at the knock out stage and clung on to the lead all the way to the finals. However, Meta AI got key predictions right in the semi finals and grand finals to level the scores in the end!
I never expected, out of so many permutations, both AIs would tie after close to 50 matches of predictions. But we have it! Maybe Meta AI would be slightly better if we attach more importance to the finals and semi finals.
So that's the end of this little experiment! Hope you had as much fun as I did! It's BYE to football/soccer for a while!
Thanks for the series.
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this has been a great experiment
are you thinking of running it through the season? or trying it on the NFL?
Hey thanks for the kind comment! Hehe it was meant to be an experiment - I think the AIs still need a lot of room for improvement. I probably leave this as it is and revisit at a later stage, in the mean time, everyone can try using these AI tools for themselves too!
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